The Essence of Problem Solving #6 — The Australian C...

In statistical legend from World War II's bomber campaign — Professor Abraham Wald argued against the crowd that armor should be added to the very spots on returning planes that had no bullet holes, such as the engines and cockpit, because planes hit there never made it home. The heart of that famous story is "silent evidence" — the dead who cannot speak. Between the late 18th and the 19th centuries, the history of transporting convicts to Australia staged an equally profound drama about silent evidence and institutional design. It shows vividly how people tried again and again against appearances before finally digging out the essence of the problem: First Attempt: A Remedy for "Scarcity of Provisions" Faced with astonishing mortality rates of up to 25% — and 37% on ships such as the HMS Lady Shore — on the ocean crossing, the first investigators fixed their eyes on the physical state of the arriving ships. Convicts were generally gaunt and underfed, and the shipboard rations were extremely poor. On the strength of this seemingly obvious "evidence," the problem was defined as "malnutrition." So the first solution was issued: the government increased food subsidies, trying to improve the convicts' constitution...